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As we enter the second half of the year, it’s a great time for us to sit back and reflect on the many predictions declared for Adland in 2024 and see which came to fruition and which didn’t
In December 2023, the IAB released their 2024 Key Trends in Digital Advertising, but eight months in to the year, are these predictions still relevant to the industry and advertisers?
Transitioning Beyond Third-Party Cookies
What the IAB predicted: We’re witnessing a pivotal transition beyond third-party cookies, moving towards privacy-by-design targeting methods like contextual and cohort-based approaches. This shift, notably marked by Google’s Privacy Sandbox set to start phasing out cookies in January 2024, is further intensified by ongoing data signal loss by Apple and evolving data privacy regulations… This transition has been a long time coming, and the industry has been -or should have been- preparing for these changes for the past three years…
YTD Review: Whilst Google have announced that they will no longer be deprecating third party cookies, and instead granting Chrome users greater controls over their privacy, we know that opted in users only make up a small number of our clients’ consumers. Signal and data loss will be high and cookieless testing should remain a staple in our clients’ activations. With many cookie free environments remaining underutilised due to over reliance on cookie-based audience solutions, a full tech audit, such as KINESSO’s ETA (emerging tech assessment), is required to identify the full extent of signal loss.
AI: A New Era in Measurement and Attribution
What the IAB predicted: Artificial intelligence is taking centre stage in measurement and attribution, filling the void left by the decline of traditional data signals. The use of synthetic data, blending ad tech and martech solutions, is set to revolutionise our understanding of consumer behaviour and campaign effectiveness.
YTD Review: Small shifts in AI attribution and measurement have been seen, however the real AI winner of 2024 has been Generative AI formats e.g. Demand Gen. There has been a massive push from DSPs and Partners to use their GenAI formats to build new or refresh creatives, with the IAB reporting CPCs across Demand Gen being up to 90% lower than social platforms. Google’s GenAI tool will help more clients to unlock Demand Gen through the production of incremental creatives, built through the option to “generate more like this”, which can produce additional ad sizes and creative variants.
The Challenge of Cross-Channel Measurement
What the IAB predicted: Achieving a unified view of customer journeys will continue to be a challenge… Despite evolving privacy regulations and technological shifts, innovations in cross-channel measurement tools will provide new insights into consumer behaviours across platforms.
YTD Review: We’re yet to see a massive break through, and we’re now too far through the year to see anyone move the dial in this area. This should remain a priority into 2025 if tech is able to enable further measurement.
The Rise of Attention Metrics
What the IAB predicted: As the digital advertising industry transitions away from cookie-based metrics, the focus will increasingly shift towards attention metrics…
YTD Review: While many brands have leaned into attention, there are still plenty that are yet to understand the material benefits. For example, optimising for cost-efficient attention utilising KINESSO’s ARC (attentive reach & composition) optimiser to remove inattentive wastage. With Google reversing third party cookie deprecation, the boom of additional clients exploring attention is likely on the backburner until we see the extent of the users choosing to go cookie free. As we’re aware that cookie-based audiences make up only a small portion of our brands consumers, attention should remain a high priority for us and we’ll continue to encourage clients to advance their campaign activations and measurement of success by harnessing attention measurement and optimisation.
The Strategic Use of First-Party Data
What the IAB predicted: With the decline of third-party cookies, first-party data is gaining unprecedented importance in 2024. Companies will, however, need to strike a delicate balance between leveraging this data for targeted advertising and adhering to stringent privacy regulations
YTD Review: KINESSO has been pioneering first party data solutions since our inception and we’re seeing client demand for driving more value from their own first-party data this year, looking for incremental ways to broaden its use case. They have explored ways to supplement their data sets to deliver at scale, which remains one of the largest blockers for advertisers’ data and this issue isn’t going away anytime soon.
The Evolution of Data Clean Rooms
What the IAB predicted: Data clean rooms are poised to grow in sophistication and importance within digital advertising strategies. Looking forward, we anticipate significant advancements, expanding their capabilities in multi-touch attribution, media mix modelling, consumer journey analysis, prediction forecasting, and more…
YTD Review: Data clean rooms are essential as advertisers’ reliance on data grows. Generally, data clean rooms have improved on their capabilities with the integration of new ID solutions and advancements in the usability enabling clients and marketers to build more robust consumer insights. However, clean rooms still have a way to go, each data clean room has its own challenges, with these including data integration, compatibility and accuracy when looking at large amounts of aggregated data. Many clients are still considering if they need one or not, with alternatives like Universal Ids, Browser-based tracking and Google Chrome’s privacy sandbox. Data clean rooms still facilitate better data ownership, data privacy and analytics – all of which are essential in today’s data-driven digital ecosystem.
Programmatic Advertising Evolves
What the IAB predicted: Programmatic platforms will be in a constant state of adaptation… This dynamic environment will drive a transformation towards more controlled advertising environments, such as private marketplaces, preferred deals, automated guarantees, and a resurgence of direct buys. This shift will prioritise user experience and content quality, moving away from broad-reaching, automated approaches of the past.
YTD Review: Any influx in controlled advertising environments has been driven by cookieless testing, rather than a transition to quality and user experience. With many brands feeling the pressure to deliver results, guaranteed buying of outcomes helps risk adverse brands meet their targets. These may not be the more cost-effective method; it is however the best way to deliver guaranteed results. Across KINESSO we’ve taken great strides in developing cookieless strategies and tech to drive growth for our clients, ensuring that user experience remains at the heart as standard for our KINESSO best practice.
Retail Media Networks and Data-Driven Success
What the IAB predicted: Retail Media Networks (RMNs) are set for significant growth, driven by the adoption of standardised measurement guidelines…
YTD Review: Retail data remains one of the most valuable data sources that we can access. Access to retail data and transaction information has certainly seen growth across the past seven months. However, the market remains segregated, and adoption of standardised process and measurement has been slow to the uptake.
The New Talent Landscape
What the IAB predicted: There’s a growing demand for professionals skilled in privacy management and AI. Companies that invest in attracting and developing such talent… will be better positioned in this evolving landscape.
YTD Review: Many teams have been upskilled across the areas of development, for example incremental opportunities for GenAI across Google ads. We’re yet to see the full impact of the AI market evolutions, with the expectation that with more of our partners integrating AI into their offerings we’ll soon see expert specialisms rise.
Increasing Ad Spend in Streaming Audio, Podcasting, and Gaming
What the IAB predicted: Anticipate a notable surge in ad spending in streaming audio, podcasts, and gaming as these platforms gain prominence in digital advertising… Streaming audio facilitates personalised brand connections, podcasts offer unique storytelling opportunities, and the gaming industry provides interactive ad experiences.
YTD Review: Whilst anticipation for breakthrough formats is exciting and some brands may be leaning into shifts in strategy this year, across general trends we’re yet to see many take the big leap into areas such as gaming. Gaming has seen a dramatic slow in it’s growth since the pandemic driven boom of 2020, with EMarketer predicting a declining percentage increase in gamers year on year, with only a 3.7% increase predicted for 2024. With many brands struggling with financial uncertainty, they are being cautious with their ad dollars, looking at tried and tested strategies to eliminate risk.
Final Thoughts
Whilst the IAB certainly didn’t miss the boat with their 2024 expected trends, they were however perhaps overly ambitious with their predictions. It will be interesting for us to reflect in more depth and compare with their 2025 predictions at the end of the year.
Considering the rate of change across the media landscape it’s almost impossible to accurately predict how things will continue to evolve over the remainder of 2024. And Adland developments aren’t the only factors that will weigh on how some of these predictions turn out.
With change not only being driven by industry players but also broader global issues, the financial markets, political change and the continuing repercussions of the pandemic, the only certainty is uncertainty.